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SUMMARY:Training course: Predictability and ensemble forecast systems
DTSTART:20261019T074500Z
DTEND:20261023T120000Z
DTSTAMP:20261005T232000Z
UID:indico-event-545@ecmwfindicostage.vs.mythic-beasts.com
CONTACT:training@ecmwf.int
DESCRIPTION:\nThis five-day course will consider the challenge of making p
 redictions from days to seasons ahead. \nThe predictability of the atmosp
 here in the medium and extended range will be considered\, including diffe
 rent aspects of the Earth system which give rise to predictability on long
 er time scales. Elements of a probabilistic forecast system as well as its
  calibration and verification will be presented.\nThe course is a combinat
 ion of lectures\, hands-on practicals and group discussion sessions and wi
 ll include some elements of pre-course study. Please consult last year's t
 imetable to get an idea of possible modules and timings. The final timeta
 ble will be shared in due time.\nPlease note that this course does not cov
 er methodologies for downscaling/post-processing\, probabilistic products 
 or discuss decadal prediction.\nMain topics:\n\nTheoretical ideas - chaos\
 , predictability limits\nEnsemble methods - taking account of uncertainty 
 in initial conditions and in the model\nPredictability in the extended ran
 ge - ocean\, sea-ice\, stratosphere\, land\nProbabilistic forecast initial
 isation\, modelling\, evaluation and verification\nECMWF medium-range\, mo
 nthly and seasonal systems\n\nRequirements\nParticipants should have a goo
 d meteorological and mathematical background\, and are expected to be fami
 liar with the contents of standard meteorological and mathematical textboo
 ks.\nIntroductory material not covered by the course can be found in our l
 ecture note series.\nSome practical experience in numerical weather predic
 tion is an advantage.\nAll lectures will be given in English.\n\n\nhttps:/
 /ecmwfindicostage.vs.mythic-beasts.com/event/545/
LOCATION:ECMWF
URL:https://ecmwfindicostage.vs.mythic-beasts.com/event/545/
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